$37.8 billion cut from disabled Australians

The clock is
ticking

Labor promised to protect and grow the NDIS. Instead, the 2024 legislation is cutting $37.8 billion from participant payments — destroying $85 billion in economic value by the time the final measures land.

Time until 1 July 2028 — when all cuts are fully in effect

--- Days

-- Hours

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$0.000B Lost since Oct 2024

$673.77 Per second

$2.25 GDP returned per $1 invested

Countdown to 1 July 2028: full implementation of all measures under the NDIS Amendment (Getting the NDIS Back on Track No. 1) Act 2024. | Running loss calculated from 3 October 2024 (Act commencement) at $21.26B/year (Per Capita False Economy report, 2.25× multiplier on $9.45B/year cuts).

The staged dismantling of the NDIS

Each phase locks in more cuts, removes more participants, and leaves fewer supports. This is how a government dismantles a scheme while calling it reform.

Oct
2024

Support Categorisation — Act Commences

The NDIS Amendment Act 2024 takes effect. Rigid "in" and "out" support lists replace flexible, participant-led planning. The economic loss clock starts here.

$9.45BAnnual cut

$21.3BAnnual economic loss

Jun
2026

Cuts Bill Planned to Pass Parliament

The Securing the NDIS for Future Generations bill is expected to pass the Senate, locking in all staged cuts through to 2028. When it does, Labor's promises will become Labor's law — enshrined by the same ministers who stood up and said they would protect the scheme.

$37.8BLegislated cuts

241,000People to be removed

Sources: Senate Estimates June 2026 · health.gov.au/securingtheNDIS

Oct
2026

Social & Community Participation Gutted

The single largest category cut takes effect. $2.96B in social and civic participation supports — helping people see family, attend work, and take part in community — are removed or severely restricted. This is the cut that ends independent living for tens of thousands.

$2.96BAnnual category

Calculating…Lost by this date

~60,000People at risk

Sources: Treasury modelling, NDIA Quarterly Report Q4 2025 · health.gov.au/securingtheNDIS

2027

Full Eligibility Overhaul

Revised access criteria deny entry to an estimated 241,000 people who would otherwise qualify. The scheme shrinks by design — not by fixing waste, but by redefining who counts.

241,000People denied access

Calculating…Lost by mid-2027

Jul
2028

Full Implementation — Point of No Return

All measures fully in effect. $85 billion in economic value destroyed. 10,200 jobs lost per billion cut. Australia's GDP permanently reduced. This is the date the countdown above is racing toward.

$85.05BTotal economic loss

0.14%GDP reduction per $1B cut

10,200Jobs lost per $1B cut

204,000Jobs projected to be lost overall

It's not about fraud.
It's about cutting
supports.

Labor's 2026 Budget cuts $37.8 billion from NDIS participant payments by 2030 — the single largest savings measure in the federal budget. 97.6% of those savings come from removing supports from disabled people. Not from fighting fraud.

The government calls this "Securing the NDIS for Future Generations." Treasury modelling tabled at Senate Estimates (June 2026) tells a very different story.

Of the $38.1 billion in projected savings, only $0.9 billion — 2.4% — comes from fraud and integrity measures. The remaining 97.6% comes directly from removing or restricting supports for disabled people.

Removing / restricting supports 97.6%

Fraud & integrity measures 2.4%

Sources: Treasury modelling tabled at Senate Estimates, June 2026 · health.gov.au/securingtheNDIS

Removing/restricting supports — 97.6% ($37.2B)

Fraud & integrity measures — 2.4% ($0.9B)

Government's own data

People with high support needs are dying faster than expected

This is not an advocacy claim. It is from the NDIA's own actuarial reports, tabled in Senate Estimates. While the government cuts supports, its own data shows that disabled people living in supported accommodation are dying at rates higher than their models predicted. The Scheme Actuary's own projection is that people will die at even higher rates after these changes take effect.

The current life expectancy of an intellectually disabled woman in Australia is 49 years of age.

"People with high support needs and generally living in group settings are dying more than they did during COVID. Please tell me why we are cutting supports and not asking questions."
— Naomi Anderson, Senate Community Affairs Committee, 10 June 2026

↑ Rising Actual mortality rate for SIL participants vs model predictions

2025 FSR Scheme Actuary increased mortality assumptions for high-need participants in response

Deaths, not recommendations

Australia's Disability Royal Commission (2019–2023) ran for four and a half years at a cost of almost $600 million — the most expensive Royal Commission in the nation's history. It handed down 222 recommendations to protect disabled people from violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation. Of the 172 recommendations that were the federal government's responsibility, Labor accepted just 13 in full. A further 117 were "accepted in principle," 36 were listed "for further consideration," and 6 were merely "noted." Eight months after responding to the Royal Commission, the same government legislated $37.8 billion in cuts to the NDIS — with no foundational supports safety net yet in place to replace what was taken.

Source: NDIA Financial Sustainability Report 2025 (Figure 16 — Actual and projected crude mortality rate for SIL participants). Senate Community Affairs Estimates, 10 June 2026. ndis.gov.au/media/8187

They promised a real NDIS

Labor's own words — before the cuts.

"We will fix the NDIS. Not cut it. Fix it. Every Australian with a disability deserves certainty, dignity, and the support they need to live the life they choose."

Anthony Albanese

Prime Minister

2022

"The NDIS is not a budget problem to be solved. It is a promise to be kept. We will not balance the budget on the backs of people with disability."

Bill Shorten

Former NDIS Minister

2024

"I have committed to every person with disability in this country that we will work with you, not against you. The scheme is yours. We are its custodians, not its auditors."

Jenny McAllister

NDIS Minister

2025

"Labor believes in the NDIS. We created it. We will protect it. The 2% annual growth cap is about sustainability — it is not a ceiling on what people receive."

Amanda Rishworth

Social Services Minister

2024